Strategic Triangle of Siachen-Daulet Beg Oldie-Karakoram Pass

Strategic Triangle (Siachen-Karakoram Pass- Daulet Beg Oldie)

The Shimla Pact of 1972 demarcated the LOC on map as well as on ground upto point NJ 9842 and left it delineated beyond with the words ‘northwards’ since at that time the area beyond NJ 9842 was perceived as inhabitable and covered by snow throughout the year which is now known as ‘SIACHEN’. The line extending northwards of NJ 9842 has different perceptions for Pak and India. Pak feels the LOC extends towards the imaginary line joining to Karakoram Pass whereas to India it means the line running along the top of the Siachen Glacier peaks till it meets the Saksham Valley and Karakoram Highway. India pre-empted Pak in 1984 by occupying the glacial heights under ‘Op Meghdoot’ and continues to dominate the area around. Pak efforts to force India to vacate Siachen has not borne fruits. Even Track 2 diplomacy has not helped.  Given the cost factor to maintain troops at such heights, Siachen has become ‘strategically’ important for India.

What happens if India vacates Siachen?
(a)     Should Pak occupy these heights; it would be next to impossible for India to capture/occupy them again.
(b)     Pak can occupy and lease the area to China as it has done with the Shaksam Valley. Thereafter India can forget about Siachen.
(c)      China can exert pressure on India or fight a limited war so that India vacates Siachen and China occupies it giving strategic depth to the Karakoram Pass and the Karakoram Highway. In that context occupation of Siachen, Depsang valley and Daulet Beg Oldie gives India the upper hand to dominate the triangle area and threaten the Karakoram pass and Highway.
(d) Pak/China will have easy access to the Leh District/Valley

So, therefore under no circumstances should India vacate Siachen. In fact India should improve its border infrastructure by developing roads and permanent defences. India should ‘pump in’ more troops and keep elements of the Mountain Strike Corps to restore areas taken away by China. Ideally India should induct one more Mountain Division and an Armed Bde under Hq 14 Corps in the area of responsibility of 14 Corps in Western Ladakh.